Monday, Septemer 4, is set to become another golden letter day for the financial history of cricket. The Board of Control for cricket in India is set for an expected windfall of up to Rs 20,000 crore ($ 3 billion approximately). Going by experts and stakeholders opinion the range variation is huge. Somewhere close to three times – between Rs 7,650 crore and Rs 20,000 thousand ($1.2 billion to $ 3 billion approximately). The figures are arrived at from various reports and the discussions insidesport.co has had with IPL stakeholders, media rights experts and the lead market managers.
Rs 12-15 thousand crore ($ 1.9-2.35 billion)
Optimistic stake-holders first, for whom the bid price will get the business out of red, once and forever. Speaking exclusively to Insidesport.co, Kings XI, Punjab, co-owner Mohit Burman puts a composite expected figure from the IPL media rights five-year window at anywhere between Rs 12,000 crore and Rs 15,000 crores. How does Mohit arrives at these numbers? It is an internal assessment by his team of finance managers.
BCCI RIGHTS’ FIRST BIG BIDDER
Rs 7,650-9,500 crore ($1.2-1.5 billion)
Harish Thawani, the former CEO of Nimbus Communications, who is credited with committing the first four-figure media rights deal with BCCI, is cautious in his assumptions. Irrespective of 24 interests in IPL rights ITT documents, Thawani sees it eventually to be a two horse race – between incumbent Sony and challenger Star. He would put a realistic figure at Rs 7,650 ($1.2 billion). However, if “Sony fails to conquer its fear to lose and STAR doesn’t overcome its greed” the number may go up to Rs 9,500 ($ 1.5 billion), says Thawani.
Rs 11,000-13,000 crore ($ 1.75-2 billion)
The veteran in media rights acquisition and syndication, Sporty Solutionz chief executive Ashish Chadha is more optimistic in his approach. The seasoned pro who has been a conduit between various cricket boards, sports bodies, media rights holders and broadcasters all over the world, puts the numbers anywhere between Rs 11,000-13,000 crore ($ 1.75-2 billion). “Broadcasters will make a rational bid, but be prepared to see surprising numbers from digital players, which will also set the tone for the future of digital media rights,” says Chadha.
Rs 18,000-20,000 crore ($2.75-3 billion)
One of the biggest spenders on cricket, also puts the biggest expectations from the IPL media rights. Arshad Nizam Shawl, director and co-founder of Alliance Advertising and Marketing, will not be surprised to see a Rs 18,000 crore to Rs 20,000 crore ($ 2.75 to $ 3 billion) bid for the IPL media rights. These are not mere assumptions. The numbers emerge from meticulous calculations from per second price tag to five-year inventory the league would generate, from allied sales to annual value revisions. If you find the figures unrealistic or highly surprising then it is important to know that Arshad holds the marketing account for Vivo, which has committed a never-thought-of Rs 2,200 crore rupees for IPL’s title sponsorship rights.
RESEARCH AND ANALYSIS
Rs 12,800 crore ($ 2.1 billion)
To put it all in perspective, here is analysts assessment. Duff and Phelps, the evaluators who have put brand IPL’s gross value at Rs 34,000 crore, are taking into account an assumed Rs 12,800 ($2.1 million) revenue from the IPL media rights. Of this values Rs 11,500 ($1.8 billion) are expected to come from television rights, whereas digital players contribution is worked out to be Rs 1,345 crore ($ 210) million. Duff and Pheps in their study have taken the market growth, Vivo’s successful bid of Rs 2,200 crore for title rights and all other relevant facts into consideration to arrive at these figures.