Euro 2020 Prediction: Goldman Sachs’ statistical model predicts new European champion but it’s not France

Euro 2020 Prediction: Goldman Sachs’ statistical model predicts Belgium as new European champion ahead of England, to beat Italy in final

Euro 2020 Prediction: Europe’s biggest event, European football championship, is just 9 days to go and fans across the world are eagerly waiting to see who will lift the title after Cristiano Ronaldo’s Portugal. FIFA World Cup winner France are the favourites but according to Goldman Sachs’ statistical model, it’s World No 1 Belgium who will finally taste European glory. England, the other favourite, will be eliminated in the quarterfinal.

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To come to that conclusion, Goldman Sachs made use of a datasheet of 6,000 games since 1980 and historical data besides considering factors such as current form, home advantage and ELO rankings. As per the model, Kevin De Bruyne’s Belgium will win beating Italy in the final in the extra time at the Wembley Stadium.

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Euro 2020 Prediction: Two analysts Christian Schnittker and Sven Jari Stehn led the analysis going through the prediction a number of times. The model was based on strength of the squad and goals scored in recent matches while also considering the factor of a “tournament effect”.

“We predict that Germany will make it out of its difficult group ahead of France, but then lose to England at Wembley during the round of 16. Speaking as Germans, we checked this prediction a number of times,” Goldman Sachs said in a note.

Euro Prediction: As per the “tournament effect”, some countries outperform other teams considering low ELO ratings. For example, Germany, currently below France in ELO ratings, pipped the Frenchmen to qualify for the knockouts. The home advantage also played a major role in the prediction with the model giving a 0.4 goal advantage to the host. The model also hands Belgium an advantage due to its high ELO score. Belgium is the highest-rated team in Europe behind table topper Brazil.

“Our framework predicts that Belgium will win the Euros for the first time in history, narrowly beating Italy on July 11,” the Goldman Sachs analysts said.

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However, such models should be taken with a pinch of salt as a number of things could change during the tournament and predictions could go wrong. For example, an important player might get injured or individual errors lead to a surprise result. For example, Kevin De Bruyne, Belgium’s star player is doubtful for after suffering a facial injury in the UEFA Champions League Final match for Manchester City.

“It is difficult to assess how much faith one should have in these predictions even with sophisticated statistical techniques,” the analysts said.

Euro 2020 Prediction: The tournament kicks off on June 12 (IST) in Rome with Italy taking on Turkey at the Stadio Olimpico. Two more games will be played on Friday with Wales facing Switzerland and Denmark taking on Finland. The 24-team competition was supposed to be held in 2020 but due to the COVID-19 pandemic, it was postponed to 2021.

As for tough Group F, considered the group of death, Goldman Sachs predicts that world champion France will bow out from the group stage with Germany and Portugal making it to the Round of 16.