FIFA WORLD CUP 2018: Who is professional analysts’ winner?

FIFA World Cup Russia 2018 - InsideSport
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This is the prediction time for who will win the FIFA World Cup 2018. The legends who have graced this game over a period of time, the punters who are in for some quick bucks, the professional data analysts, the betting world and a common passionate fan are all busy analysing and announcing who will lift the coveted golden trophy depicting two humans holding the globe aloft.

There are predictions influenced by personal biases and choices. And then there are assumptions arrived at by hardened statistical professionals with scientific data analysis. These big names of financial analysis and business world are split between Brazil and France in their conclusion over the potential champions of the FIFA World Cup 2018.

Goldman Sachs research economists have calculated the chances for each of the 32 countries competing in the 2018 World Cup to arrive at the conclusion that Brazil stands the best chance to be crowned the Champion in Moscow on July 15. Among the 32 participants, Brazil have the best 18.5% probability to win the final, reveals the study. France (11.3%), Germany (10.7%), Portugal (9.4%) and Belgium (8.2%) are rated at the strongest five teams in the analysis by the leading global investment banking, securities and investment management firm.

“France has a higher probability than Germany of winning the World Cup, but its (bad) luck in the draw sees it meeting Brazil at the semi-final stage, and the team may not be strong enough to make it past Seleção,” Goldman Sachs predicted.

Brazil is also rated as favourite and strongest to emerge from their 1-7 semi-finals defeat at home four years ago by Danske Bank. Demark’s investment banker and one the leading lenders in Europe has predicted Brazil with a 17% probability to win the World Cup, followed by Lionel Messi’s Argentina (12%), Germany (12%), Spain and France (7% each).

GOLDMAN, DANSKE BACK BRAZIL

GOLDMAN SACHS:

Brazil 18.5%

France 11.3%

Germany 10.7%

Portugal 9.4%

Belgium 8.2%

DANSKE BANK:

Brazil 17%

Argentina 12%

Germany 12%

Spain 7%

France 7%

For UBS Wealth Management, it is the Germany who are the firm favourites to win the World Cup 2018. The Swiss multinational investment bank and financial services firm though acknowledges Brazil as one of the two strong contenders, it analyses that a potential semi-finals show off with Germany is a big threat for Neymar’s team.

“The first semi-final, by the way, might again see Brazil being confronted with its nemesis from 2014, Germany. While we hope that the best team wins, we also hope that the outcome is less devastating than last time, when our colleagues in São Paulo were depressed for several weeks afterwards,” UBS has put on record.

German’s Commerzbank gives Germany a 18.3% probability of lifting the trophy, with Brazil the second most likely, just below 13%, and Spain, Argentina and France behind that. England has a 6.2% chance.

GERMANY FAVOURITE FOR UBS, COMMERZ BANK

UBS WEALTH:

Germany 24%

Brazil 19.8%

Spain 16.1%

England 8.5%

Belgium 5.3%

COMMERZ BANK:

Germany 18.3%

Brazil 12.7%

Spain 9.6%

Argentina 7.7%

France 7.5%

Big data studies are a regular feature in the build-up to sports events of global magnitude. However, in the end, result from performance in the middle matters the most. That is what makes sports so exciting. While favourites live on their strengths and reputations; no study, no analysis and no pundits will rule out the upsets.


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