OTT revenues to double in five years; bad news for pay TV

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The OTT industry will flourish in the next five years. But the news for pay TV is not that good.

A report by Digital TV Research has predicted that the two broadcast streams will be heading in opposite direction in terms of their future prospects. Market probabilities over the next five years hold a lots of promise for the OTT industry, which is expected to reach $159 billion by 2024 –more than 100% growth over the $68 billion global revenue last year.

However, the pay TV revenues during the period may slump to the $ 177 billion mark – the same level as 2010 even as the number of pay TV subscribers will grow by 380 million between 2010 and 2024.

The pay TV sector in India though is poised for a healthy growth during the period between 2018 and 2024. “On a positive note, India will gain $1 billion in pay TV revenues

between 2018 and 2024 to take its total to $6.32 billion – up by nearly 20%. India will move up from sixth to third place over this period. The second biggest winner

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will be Indonesia, with a $786 million gain,” the report quotes Digital TV Research principal analyst Simon Murray as saying.

The research forecasts 81 million additional pay TV subscribers between 2018 and 2024 – up by 8%. This will take the global total to 1.10 billion. Based on forecasts for 138 countries, the number of pay TV subs passed 1 billion in 2018.

The global revenues from streaming video services this year are projected to reach $85 billion – up by more than 25% from the $68 billion recorded in 2018.  SVOD revenues will climb by $51 billion between 2018 and 2024 to take its total to $87 billion, states the report.

“Despite losing market share to SVOD, there is still plenty of AVOD growth left. AVOD revenues will increase by $34 billion between 2018 and 2024 to take its total to $56 billion. Several high profile AVOD-funded platforms are due to start operations soon,” says Murray.

The report has covered 138 countries. The top five from these will command 68% of the global revenues by 2024. The fact that this proportion is down from 71% in 2018 establishes the rest of the world will grow at a faster rate.

OTT revenues will exceed $1 billion in 18 countries by 2024; up from 10 countries in 2018.

The US will remain the dominant territory by some distance, with its share of global revenues staying just under 40%. Digital TV Research forecasts that revenues in

the US will more than double between 2018 and 2024 – adding nearly $34 billion to reach $61 billion. China will add $15 billion over the same period to reach to $27 billion. The US and China will control 56% of the global total by 2024.

“China and the US together accounted for 63 per cent of the global total in 2018. China overtook the US in 2018 to become the gross SVOD subscription leader,” says Murray.  “India (has) nearly doubled its subscription base.”

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