Sports Business: Player transfer value to fall by 28% due to clubs’ loss

Financial impact of the novel Coronavirus on top five football leagues will severely damage the top players transfer values next year. The CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post has predicted that the players’ transfer values may fall by up 28%.

The COVID-19 virus, still without an anti-dose, is impacting the sports business worldwide and an abrupt suspension of leagues has hit the football world hard.

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The report observes that the player transfer value of the Big Five Leagues – Premier League, LaLiga, Serie A, Bundesliga and Ligue1 – will collapse by 28% from € 32.7 mn this year to € 23.4 million.

The assumption is based on leagues are shut down and player contracts are not extended until the end of June.

“Of course, this is a very hypothetical scenario, but a 28% loss to me is quite credible because it will probably correspond to the loss of income clubs will be confronted with,” Dr Raffaele Poli, co-founder of CIES Football Observatory, told me in an interview.

Top international clubs like Juventus have already reached agreement with their players and staff to slash salaries by up to 33% to offload the financial burden since the novel Coronavirus pandemic has forced an abrupt halt to the season.

The coronavirus pandemic is heavily impacting the football industry, the CIES Football Observatory has revealed in its 289th issue of the Weekly Post, which presents the gaps in the players’ estimated transfer value in the event that no matches will be played and no contract will be extended until the end of June.

The extent of the decrease will vary according to several factors such as the players’ age, contract duration, career path and recent performance.

The greatest loss in relative terms will concern ageing footballers with short-term contracts as they have played fewer matches during current season than in the previous one. As matter of example, Paul Pogba’s estimated transfer value would almost halve from €65M to €35M.

The greatest potential percentage loss per club was measured for Olympique de Marseille @ 38%. Conversely, the lowest one was recorded for another French Ligue 1 team Stade Brestois (-16%).

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