Gracenote, who provide statistical data for major tournaments across sports, said as per their model, India will win eight medals in shooting, four in boxing, three in wrestling and one each in archery and weightlifting. The total tally is projected to be four gold medals, five silver and eight bronze.
“There is greater uncertainty than we would usually expect for these Olympics and it is important to emphasise this,” Simon Gleave, the head of sports analysis at Gracenote, said.
Tokyo Olympics Predictions: What are the prediction?
- The United States is expected to win the most medals overall at Tokyo 2020. This would mark the seventh successive Summer Games during which the American team would have come out on top of the medal count competition.
- After falling to 70 medals in 2016, China is expected to bounce back in Tokyo to cement second place on the Virtual Medal Table for the third successive Summer Olympics.
- At this stage it is unclear which athletes will be able to compete under the Russian Olympic Committee banner in Tokyo. Competition data suggests that a battle for third place on the medal table is realistic for those athletes who are permitted to compete.
- While Japan is expected to improve on its Rio 2016 medal total by over 40%, this increase is not likely enough for the host nation to genuinely challenge China for second place.
- Along with Japan, the Netherlands head a group of National Olympic Committees, NOCs, who can expect to improve significantly on their 2016 medal totals.
“A 2019 World Championship will therefore have less weight than it would have had the Olympics been held as scheduled,” he said. “As this is built on sports results data, there is little that we can do about the lack of events in some sports over the past year although around half of the sports have had something.”
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Gracenote’s prediction for the top three countries on the Rio Olympics medal table turned out to be true, according to the Associated Press. Furthermore, Gracenote predicted eight of the top 10 medal winners correctly.
In a pre-pandemic prediction for the Tokyo Games, made in 2019, Gracenote – a Neilson company – had said India would win three fewer gold medals, even as the forecast for the silver and bronze medals remained the same.